Bad Moon Rising, part 2 – Disjointed thoughts on the Economy
To me, the superbowl has really never been important. This year, as we approach the precipice of a depression, I see irony in it. The U.S. steel industry was once the model of efficiency and quality for the world. Now, it takes serious thought to remember why Pittsburgh’s team is called the ’steelers’, or where the logo on their helmets came from.
Nobody seemed to be concerned that a ’service economy’ just can’t exist stably. It translates to ‘consumer based’ economy. If all we do is consume goods created elsewhere, eventually the ‘elsewhere’ has collected all of our capital. That leaves us with broke, but with lots of stuff. It’s a bit like the star-bellied sneeches from Dr. Seus. Except that they didn’t have jobs, apparently. Don’t worry, we’ll get there.
Knowing what lies just around the corner for our country, I can’t help but think of Rome. They continued to enjoy their circuses and gladiatorial holidays while their empire crumbled out from underneath them. Our beloved government is going to try to borrow their way out of debt, which will only give us double-digit inflation for years.
And for a comparison between this depression and it’s place in U.S. history, here’s a video from itulip.
Update:
From the International Herald Tribune:
He now estimates that $2.2 trillion in new government debt will be issued this year, assuming the stimulus plan is approved.
“You either crowd out other borrowers or you print money,” Ferguson added. “There is no way you can have $2.2 trillion in borrowing without influencing interest rates or inflation in the long term.”
“This is a crisis of excessive debt, which reached 355 percent of American gross domestic product,” he said. “It cannot be solved with more debt.”
“People are not stupid,” Zedillo said. “They see the huge deficit, the huge spending, and wonder what comes next.”
To that last I would add that he is referring to economists that are NOT in the U.S. Nobody around here seems to have gotten that far … yet.
There’s A Bad Moon On The Rise…
I’ve had this feeling that things are going to get bad. I’m not sure how bad here, but elsewhere I would expect really bad.
And it has nothing to do with our new president. The economic problems that we are running full-steam into are beyond government’s ability to fix now. They’ve been coming for quite a while, and we have been pushing the problems off into the future. Paying one credit card bill with another, so to speak. Well, the future is here now.
The Federal reserve is basically printing money, as the interest rate it charges is now at or nearly zero. This will have the effect of ‘flooding’ the market with money, making inflation rise sharply. To give you an idea, here is the Federal Reserve’s own chart. That vertical line on the right is NOW.
Combine that with China no longer buying US Treasury debt, and that sets up quite a problem. An insufficient number of treasury bills will be sold, so to sell more, we will have to promise a higher interest rate, which means that the debt of the government will increase faster. And it’s not just in the U.S. either. The Bank of England recently lowered their interest rate to the lowest it has ever been. The value of anything drops when supplies are drastically increased, and the U.S. dollar is no different. So, while the governments flood the economy with money, some companies realize that the value of money in the future will be much lower than it is now. If we’re lucky, we won’t have to take a wheelbarrow full of money to go grocery shopping.
The economic mess is truly a global problem, causing the government of Iceland to fail, just weeks after the state bank failed. They’re the first. I doubt they will be the last. Argentina’s solution to their financial problems was to steal all the retirement savings. We’re at least a few years away from having all our IRAs and 401Ks ‘reinvested’ in the social security ponzi scheme.
Add to that a record pace for unemployment growth, and you get a really bad scene. Tons of excess inventory will idle production worldwide as people finally realize that their spending sprees of the last ten years are over.
Food prices will rise drastically, partially due to the lowered value of the dollar. If we have another bad year for food production, prices will rise drastically. Last year also saw the spread of more virulent forms of wheat rust, which is expected to hit the entire middle East and Asia this year. Fresh foods, especially those grown in California, will be scarce and expensive. Food banks, which were strained last year will fail miserably. And I’m not the only one concerned about it. Hopefully rat-farming will remain an exclusively overseas thing.
Last year also saw dramatic shortages of fertilizer. Not so much in the U.S., but overseas. And since we’re in a global market, a shortage elsewhere increases prices here, but at least the materials are still available. But only for those that can afford them. People will have to choose between keeping the heat on and eating. And it has already started.
There is a general sense of unease running through people. Munchkinwrangler and Crankyprof are two good examples.
Now, I’m not predicting a Mad-Max type scenario, but I’m not entirely ruling it out, either. I doubt it will be a drastic crash, I expect more like a steep downward spiral.
What I will guarantee is crime, and lots of it. The last time the economy was this bad was in the 70’s. I wasn’t old enough to realize just how bad the economy and crime were then, but what I do remember were the movies. Movies like ‘Mad Max’, ‘Death Wish’, and ‘Dirty Harry’. If art imitates life (or makes it a caricature) then things don’t bode well for our immediate future. Again, I am not alone in this thinking.
And if you have the same feeling, now would be a good time to prepare. Non perishable food & water for a week or so would be a good start. And since you don’t really posess anything you are unable to keep, get a gun. A shotgun for home is a good choice, but probably not the best one. A better choice would be a handgun with training. You shold find a comfortable holster and wear the handgun all the time. Most robbers won’t call and warn you, and unauthorized people or children will find it difficult to misuse if it is attached to your body. A concealed carry permit should be next, to allow you to protect yourself and your family while away from home. The most important thing is to practice with it, and carry it everywhere you are allowed. It should be as comfortable as a pair of broken-in shoes.
And to any believers out there who expect to be raptured (as I do), we are promised that we will avoid GOD’s wrath poured out on the world. We are NOT guaranteed to escape tragedies and hardships caused by man. How much will God allow us to go through? Look no further than the unrest after Katrina, or the Janjaweed militias.
Two Incidents, Different Results
Locally, there were two break-ins recently that have made the news. The first was in a gated and guarded community. Men forced entry through a rear door, and killed the couple who were there. The second was a daylight robbery where men again forced entry through a rear door of a home where the woman had stayed home from work sick.
The difference? The people in the first were relying on someone else to protect them. The woman in the second took it upon herself to be ready to defend herself if the need arose.
When seconds count, police are only minutes away.
If you are unwilling to use appropriate force to defend yourself, why do you expect overworked and underpaid government employees to do it for you.
The after-effects of both are quite different, too. The first set of criminals have learned that robbery and murder can be done and gotten away with – at least for a time. So did everyone else that heard about it. Everyone else also learned that the security in that neighborhood is probably not as good as it is advertised to be.
The second set of criminals, as well as anyone who watched the news or heard about the incident, learned that breaking into an occupied house can be quite dangerous.
Any guess what the crime rate in the two different areas is?
It is a citizen’s DUTY to resist all crime. It shifts the balance of the cost/benefit equasion against it. If every crime were effectively resisted by the victim, criminals would stick to stealing unattended stuff. Some might even get a (gasp) JOB.
Stupid Dog
Completely unintentionally, I have the ‘last word’ on the recent incident with the annoying little drop-kick dog that lives in our house. My Wife, my Daughter, and even my Son have already had their say about it, so now it’s my turn.
The facts are quite simple. The Pomeranian walked over to my wife and peed on her foot. I watched him do it, and didn’t realize what he was doing until it was too late. I then asked my wife if she wanted the big gun (.45) or the little gun (.38). Unfortunately, she chose the camera instead. Apparently illustrating the story was worth leaving the pee on her foot until pictures were taken.
So, why did he do it?
The simple answer is because he is stupid. He’s so stupid that calling him stupid is an insult to stupid. He’s stupid enough that him peeing on my wife’s foot is really no surprise to anyone that knows him. He’s just stupid, stupid, stupid… well, you get the idea.
He’s stupid and useless. He might make an acceptable alarm, if he would only bark at people or animals in or near our yard, but no. He barks when someone comes to the door, but he also barks at us when we walk upstairs. He even barks at people walking OUT the door. Frequently (read multiple times an hour) he barks at… nothing. Nobody walking on the street, no critters in the yard, just – nothing.
And he’s not house broken, and never will be. Before you try to tell me that any dog is trainable, remember that this dog is STUPID. To house break a dog, you typically scold him when he piddles in the house, and take him outside. Most dogs figure it out fairly quickly. Sometimes you even have to crate the dog, and only allow him in the house after he’s gone. But not with Dudley, because he’s stupid. The crate trick works, because dogs won’t soil a confined area like a crate. Most dogs, but not Dudley. Leave him in a crate for more than an hour, and you have to take the crate outside to hose it down.
Is he unique for a Pomeranian? I don’t know. I’ve never seen a completely housebroken Pomeranian. But I think it has something to do with the ‘toy’ dogs. Their heads just aren’t big enough to hold a brain, so they run entirely on their spinal cord.
In summary, the bigger the dog, the bigger the brain; the bigger the brain, the better the dog. Oh, and Dudley is STUPID.
